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Global Expectations Survey 2019

Global Perspective from Gallup International

Optimism for the New 2019 year continues to prevail in the World, although pessimism is increasing according to the first and oldest Global Hope “End of the Year” Index by Gallup International.

Prospects for a better 2019 year are increasing for a majority of those surveyed in Africa (typically quite an optimisticregion despite living conditions), in India, in non-EU Europe, in the USA and in Latin America.  Conversely, we also see more pessimism about the year ahead in the Middle East, in Russia, and to an extent in Western Europe.

Over all optimism for the new Year traditionally prevails in the majority of the countries around the world with the exception this year of Turkey, Serbia, UK, Poland, Czech Republic, Russia, Bosnia (BiH), Bulgaria, Hong Kong, France, Italy, Lebanon, Jordan and Republic of Korea.

Our global survey also asked whether people expect the next 12 months to be more or less peaceful. While 28% of the world expect it to be more peaceful, 34% believe it will be more troubled.  Confidence in peace shines brightest in India, Ghana, Albania, Nigeria and interestingly in Pakistan. At the other end of the scale, ongoing weekend protests in France and the ‘gilets jaunes’ see France register as the country where the most (70%) feel next year will be more troubled.  

Kancho Stoychev, President GIA (GALLUP INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION):

“For decades the End of the Year global poll is registering a paradox: people living in wealthier countries tend to be more pessimistic about the coming New Year. And vice versa. EU is increasingly pessimistic.. The same is with Russia while optimism for the next year in the USA is the highest it has been for the last decade. The performance of the US economy is possibly a key driver here. Traditionally in previous decades more people around the World expect a peaceful New Year rather than a troubled one with a permanent exemption: The Middle East. But now for the first time in this century a growing number of West Europeans expect fear a less peaceful next year.”

 

PARAGUAY PERSPECTIVE FROM ICA CONSULTORIA ESTRATEGICA

Compared to the end of the year 2016 Paraguay net hope index has decreased considerably by 12% mainly as a reduction in optimism. On the other hand, Paraguay is still overall two times above the global index and LATAM index.

Concerning the expectation of peace in the world, Paraguayans are very optimistic with 67% in favor of a more peaceful 2019, ranking in the top 10 most optimistic countries in this question.

Year after year, and poll after poll, Paraguay has ranked highly on happiness level and positive emotions polls. Again this year´s results are very similar, measuring a 73% net score for happiness index.

HOPE INDEX*
YEAR Optimists Pessimists Neutrals NADK NET
PY 2016 -2017 53% 10% 32% 5% 43%
PY 2018-2019 43% 12% 39% 6% 31%
Global 2018 39% 24% 31% 6% 15%
LATAM 2018 43% 25% 26% 5% 18%
*En su conocimiento, cree que el año 2019 será mejor, peor o igual al 2018?
HAPPINESS INDEX **
Año Optimistas Pessimistas Neutrales NSNR NETO
PY 2016 77% 3% 23% 3% 74%***
PY 2018 75% 2% 17% 0% 73%
** En general, personalmente, se siente muy feliz, feliz, ni feliz ni infeliz, infeliz o muy infeliz sobre su vida?
*** TOP 10 paises más positivos/felices entre 69 paises del mundo  (68,759 personas)

 

Methodology:

The Gallup International End of Year Survey (EoY) is an annual tradition initiated by and designed under the chairmanship of Dr. George Gallup in 1977. It is conducted every year since then. This year it was carried out by the Gallup International Association in partnership with WIN in 50 countries around the world.

Regions coverage:

  • EU Total: Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Spain, UK
  • EU West: Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK
  • EU East: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Hungary
  • Non-EU Europe: Albania, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Switzerland, Ukraine
  • USA
  • India
  • Russia
  • Latin America: Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay
  • East Asia: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
  • West Asia: Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey
  • Middle East: Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon
  • Africa: Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa
  • Australia & New Zealand

 

Sample Size and Mode of Field Work:

A total of 48 745 persons were interviewed globally. In each country a representative sample of around 1000 men and women was interviewed either face to face (27 countries; n=28063), via telephone (7 countries; n=5922) or online (16 countries; n=14760). The field work was conducted during October- December 2018. The margin of error for the survey is between +3-5% at 95% confidence level.

 

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